The Waiting Game
The election date has been set as October 07 and so we have another five weeks to wait to know whether the PNM or the UNC will win government. We've been waiting since the PNM incumbents were installed under nine months ago on the basis of the 18-18 tie and Panday reneged on an open promise to accept the President's decision on the appointment of a prime minister when he was not retained. We've been waiting most of us with minds already made up, and the question that arises is, Will the election campaign change enough minds and make up enough undecided minds to make a clear difference?
Let's keep in mind that a clear difference in electoral support between the two parties is the reason for the premature election. No accommodation of the PNM government was granted by the UNC the last time and there is no basis for expecting any this time either. No coalition with minor parties was possible then and none, except Best's constituency of None of the Above politicises itself to the extent of taking away one or two seats, seems possible or endorsable now. No powersharing formula was trusted then and none is likely to be this time.
The immaturity of ethnically polarised PNM and UNC is so stark and their distrust of each other so strong underlyingly that only a clear margin of victory - of at least one seat if a minor party intrudes, of at least two if none does - seems to suffice.
How could the campaign change or make up minds in ways that count? As I see it, it could only do so on any of three bases - damning PNM revelations of UNC corruption; credible UNC critique of PNM's short stint in power; a point-of-no-return disaffection with ethnicity-based politics that leaks enough voters from the ethnic monoliths.
Will the published and politicised evidence of UNC corruption and squandermania be enough to either turn the enthusiasm of enough UNC supporters in the marginal seats into a withdrawal, or swing it to the PNM? Will it turn enough of the undecided to the PNM? Will the UNC be able to convince enough supporters of the PNM and None of the Above that the PNM is retrogressive, nepotistic, imitative and devoid of initiative, and turn them on that account? And will supporters of both parties be so disappointed by the clinging to ethnicity as a basis for the capture of power that they will sever ties in droves?
With these things, you can never tell; 'accidents' - that is, events we cannot empirically explain - happen all the time. God knows we need to put an end to the overwhelmingly obscene UNC corruption and financial highhandedness that the evidence seems to point to, but our politics tells us that people are not beyond holding their noses about the misdeeds of leaders of their tribe in the interest of the greater agenda of keeping out The Other.
God knows that we need a government and a consciousness to crusade against corruption, but though the present PNM incumbents are doing an admirable job (yes, admirable!), their party's history in that regard is not the most comforting.
And God knows we desperately need to cross ethnic borders into a region where we elect governments, not on blind ethnic identification, but on our perception of the ability of political outfits to engage real issues and bring psychosocial and socio-economic justice to all, but especially to those social groups that have long been disadvantaged.
But I'm engaging in wishful thinking, for the real world is not like that. The real world is one where ethnic self-advantage, personal and ethnic corruption, personal and government misadventure, economic imbalance, constitutional absurdity, inter alia, predominate and hold sway.
How therefore will the electorate make a clear difference between the two parties? It seems to me they will only be able to do so by 'accident' and by rejection, in the marginal constituencies, of the party more likely to be offensively corrupt.
But if they do make that difference, will our benefits be constitutional reform and evenhanded socio-economic justice?
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