Leaving Russia out of Kosovo Crisis

04, May 1999
The Reuters report quotes Slobodan Milosevic as saying: "NATO bombings are ineffective and are not hurting Serbia's military capabilities. This war is a war to gain control over us, but Serbs cherish freedom and the fatherland over everything, so they will not defeat us this time either.

"Every Serb is looking east with hope, looking where the sun rises". We appreciate Moscow's diplomatic support...But aside from diplomatic and moral support, we particularly need military and technical aid."

In the meantime, the Serbs await the arrival of NATO ground troops since they know nothing will be decided without full-fledged, total and committed engagement of blood, heart and guts on the ground . These are people who are never unmindful of their history and their geography. There is, however, a lot about this crisis in Yugoslavia, this war between Serbs and Kosovars, that is being left unsaid and which is necessary for us to make informed judgments.

It is important to note, as Gerhard Wettig, Director of International Studies at the Federal Institute in Cologne, Germany, points out quite correctly in his article on "Nato and European Security", that East-Central Europe prior to World War 1 was comprised of "empires": Germany, Russia and Austria-Hungary, all of which were dismantled by the end of the war and so allowed for the development of "independent nation-states" throughout the region.

This development was, however, short-lived as the circumstances and dynamics of the peace settlement in Europe in 1919 served only to lead to the emergence of Hitler's Germany and Stalin's USSR and the virtual disappearance of the Austria-Hungary Empire absorbed and or coalesced within the ambit of either of the two strong poles.

The subsequent defeat of Germany in the Second War led to its division into East Germany and West Germany, the thrust further west of the USSR's State Power and in like manner, the thrust eastward of the Western Alliance that involved mainly France, Britain and the USA.

That set the stage for the political and economic relations of the Cold War period until the reunification of Germany, the emergence of the Western European Union and the collapse and demise of the USSR in 1992 that allowed once again for the emergence of independent nation-states in East-Central Europe.

Undoubtedly, the consequent redefinition of the geography leads to severe shifts in the balance of power between these neighbouring states with so many common borders and cross-fertilisation of peoples and cultures.

In such a scenario, it is criminal madness today to demand purity of lineage and ethnic cleansing as do Slobodan Milosevic and his supporters who dream of a greater Serbia and political and economic predominance for Serbs in the region. To this end they look towards the East Russia.

Despite the economic problems, despite having to be bailed out by the IMF to the tune of billions of dollars and dependent on the West to finance the social transformation from totalitarianism to a modern capitalist democracy, Russia still sees herself as a major European power.

Many Russian officials and bureaucrats, still strong in the Duma (Parliament), talk today about regaining lost political and military influence in Europe. But is this possible given the fact that most of the countries such as Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria, and even some of those that prior to 1992 comprised the USSR like Ukraine which originally opted for neutrality, are currently seeking incorporation into NATO and view alliance with the Western Forces (ie European Union (EU) and USA) as a major guarantee to economic and political stability?

Any expansion of NATO is viewed in Russia as a threat. The point is that Russia is fearful of being marginalised in her own space and being "sidelined internationally" because of her economic demise.

We must realise that the world is now at greater risk than previously when two evenly-balanced and powerful world powers, USA and USSR, faced each other. Russia's only recourse now, in light of any serious threat, has to be nuclear since her conventional military strength has been diminished considerably.

This very concern forces David Calleo, Director of European Studies at John Hopkins University, Washington, to ask the following questions: If Russia is weak today why the need to expand NATO? Why pursue a policy that will alienate Russia, especially when the USA needs Russia in the other arenas of Asia? Who will counter-balance China's nuclear development, if Japan remains non-nuclear?

Can a system of collective responsibility for security in Europe be made a reality? That's the billion dollar question!

Everyone must be involved, including Russia. To leave out Russia would be detrimental and lead to catastrophe.

Only time will tell if we shall through human reasoning and astute leadership settle the burning questions or allow madmen like Milosevic and Karadzic to be the catalysts that shall serve to simply blow the world to damnation.